ABOUT THE CONFERENCE
“COVID-19, Economic and Financial Shocks: Death Knell for a Globalized World?”
Analysts began to talk of a 15 to 25 % contraction in US and Eurozone GDP in the second quarter of 2020. China, where the crisis started, has shown the way, 70 % of its economy shut down in February, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities collapsing.
The entire world is facing a deflationary depression, an offer and demand shock, perhaps the biggest crisis since WWII.
Financial markets and oil price collapsed…This triggered unprecedented Governments and Central Bank actions. In the USA, the US Treasury announced a massive $2.2 trillion coronavirus pandemic relief and stimulus package. The FED programs are considerably more aggressive and done in quicker ways than what happened during the 2008-09 financial crisis : it could take the FED balance sheet from 4 to as high as $10 trillion …On the other side of the Atlantic, the corona bond disputes is tearing Europe apart. The ECB, after announcing a totally inappropriate €120 billion in additional bond-buying, will finally do “as much as necessary and for as long as needed” : the Central Bank announced a €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). In reality, a last minute move to prevent a collapse of Italy's sovereign debt, which in turn would have set off a chain-reaction and could have blown up the European monetary union in a matter of days...
Peter Navarro, the White House trade advisor, author of the book, “Death by China“, has been appointed national Defense Policy Act coordinator. Wartime economy is ahead, in a context of struggle for Hegemony between the US and China … Death knell for the globalized world of the last 30 years or so?
About Laurent Estachy
Pr. Laurent Estachy is Associate Professor at Kedge Business School, specialised in macroeconomics and international finance. His research focuses on the interactions between geopolitics and global capital markets and on the emergence of market conventions in the stock, bond or foreign exchange markets. He began his career in commercial banking at Credit Lyonnais Intal Headquarters and at BNP (Dublin & Paris). He later worked in the Treasury & Foreign Exchange dealing room of BNP in Paris, joining first the FX spot trading desk and then being in charge of a portfolio of multinational corporations. He then was VP at Rabobank-Paris. He holds a PhD in Macroeconomics and International Finance and an Executive MBA from HEC.